The media love a cliffhanger.

But the nail-biting defeat of Andy Street, the West Midlands Mayor, should not take away from the reality that there were comparatively few surprises in the May elections. The narrative was much as expected. Labour did better than forecast, but lost votes to pro-Palestinian campaigners. LibDems and Green party Councillors won more seats than they expected. Conservatives lost badly, and look even more vulnerable if the Reform party gets its act together. In short, the opinion polls seem to be measuring voter intentions broadly correctly.

There are times, however, when just confirming what we all thought we knew can make a difference to the mood of the moment. We all know we are in for a year of political debate, with some policy choices accelerated, and others deferred until after the General election. If some organisations were unsure what assumptions to make – things are a lot clearer now.

What are the implications for public engagement  professionals?

• Labour now look firm favourites to form the next Government

This will make a big difference to some organisations. There is no manifesto yet, but having read through the Labour list catalogue of commitments, there is no denying that it hopes to accomplish significant change in a vast range of public bodies and other parts of the economy. But it realises that it has little or no cash with which to grease the wheels of change. It means that there may be wholesale policy changes which will need significant amounts of stakeholder consultation. In some cases, public consultation too.

To illustrate the point, consider the extent to which new Ministers will expect Regulators to do much of the ‘heavy lifting’. There are 116 Regulators, though only the most visible – like OfCOM, OfWAT or OfGEM are familiar to the general public. They all administer public policies, and have significant stakeholders. I predict that if they were not already in dialogue with key stakeholders about what a new Government will demand, after the May elections, they will be. Local Government will face enormous challenges, for the present Government has avoided action on some huge ‘wicked issues’ like social care, property revaluations, planning reforms and housing. Consultations will feature prominently in all these areas.

• Mayors are becoming VERY important.

It must be galling for those Conservatives who championed the idea of Metro Mayors and created these new positions to see almost all of them now in Labour hands, especially as they also argued that they should have greater powers. As highly visible advocates for their regions or Cities, they have enormous capacity to set agendas and promote innovative policies. Make no mistake, they recognise that community leadership relies upon knowing what local people think and will use consultation as an obvious way to offer them choices and understand their priorities and preferences.

A few months ago, Andy Burnham and Steve Rotherham, Mayors respectively of Manchester and Liverpool published a book called Head North – a passionate plea for even greater devolution. But key issues like public transport require enormous and detailed consultations, as the Consultation Institute discovered when it provided support for the radical municipalisation of Manchester buses a few years ago. Newly-elected Labour Mayors have been inspired by Burnham, Rotherham and indeed Sadiq Khan and will wish to show their electorates that they can also embark upon really ambitious projects.

• Police and Crime Commissioners will also consult

Until they recently found candidates’ names on the ballot-box, it is fair to suppose that millions of voters may not have much of an idea of what these Commissioners are and what they do. Unlike Mayors, they cannot be said to have captured the imagination of local people. Despite this, they play a critical role in the necessary ‘checks and balances’ governing the accountability of the police.

When they were originally introduced – replacing Police Authorities which, for all their faults, had strong links with local Councils – a pivotal task was to consult on the Annual Policing plan. Very few PCCs have done this well; many pleading poverty. This is not entirely convincing for many have spent significant sums on PR. Crime and crime prevention is a serious matter, can be very localised and needs better mechanisms for regular engagement and consultation. With its commitment to more community policing, Labour knows it is going to have to invest more in building up often-neglected local consultative machinery, so I predict a major increase in this activity in coming months.

These are but three messages arising from the May elections, and no doubt there are other implications for those who organise consultations of all kinds. This analysis shows, without doubt, that we are entering a period of more frequent and more intense public dialogue, and it will take many forms. Many politicians are clamouring for Citizens Assemblies – and increasingly, Climate Assemblies, but these will not satisfy communities of interest or geographical areas that their views can be fully represented just by such events. Online consultations will also be championed by those who want to consult quickly …or superficially. The traditional methods will still be there too.

What it all means is that organisations will have to supplement the numbers to those with the skills and know-how to undertake consultations. Others may not have much in-house capability and may find that paying premium rates for external consultancies starts to be unaffordable. In all cases, though, training and mentoring will be vital and should start now.

This year’s May elections were only part of the continuum of the democratic process. There will be others – and the message is often that people like to record their displeasure with incumbent politicians. They, in turn promise to listen better, but rarely do they do so. Only by investing properly in the right skills, processes, and structures to consult meaningfully will they start to address the disillusionment that leads many to opt out of all elections! Including those held in May!

Article by Rhion Jones, Consultation GuRu

Rhion was one of the Founders of the Consultation Institute and was Programme Director from 2003 to 2017. Alongside Elizabeth Gammell he co-authored ‘The Art of Consultation’ (2008) and ‘The Politics of Consultation’ (2018) and is a specialist on the Law of Consultation. He now acts as a commentator and Adviser on all aspects of public engagement and consultation through ConsultationGuru and will be contributing articles for the Consultation Institute on a regular basis.

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